After an impressive performance in Game 4, the Denver Nuggets have established a dominant 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals. The Miami Heat, despite having home-field advantage, now face a crucial must-win situation on Monday night.
Nuggets Hold Momentum as Heat Fight to Stay Alive
NBA Finals Game 5
Throughout the first four games, the Denver Nuggets have largely dominated the series. While Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat should never be underestimated, the Nuggets return to Ball Arena with a significant advantage and all the momentum on their side.
NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Preview: Key Points to Consider
Here are the essential details for Game 5 of the NBA Finals:
- Matchup: Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets (Denver leads 3-1)
- Date: Monday, June 11th, 2023
- Time: 8:30 pm EST
- Venue: Ball Arena, Denver
- Broadcast: ABC
Betting Odds:
- Moneyline: DEN ML (-390), MIA ML (+320)
- Spread: DEN -9 (-105), MIA +9 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 208
This series has showcased the Nuggets’ dominance thus far, with their 3-1 advantage. It is worth noting that the only team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the Finals was the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers. While the Heat have put up a fight, the odds are stacked against them as they face the tall order of overcoming the Nuggets’ stronghold.
Key Betting Insights:
- Nikola Jokic: Under 29 points – Despite encountering foul trouble in Game 4, Jokic managed to contribute 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists. With his points total set at 29, a mark he has surpassed twice in this series, there is a strong case for expecting him to fall below this threshold. Given Denver’s home advantage and overall momentum, Jokic may not need to go all-out. Moreover, his season average of 24.5 points further supports the under bet.
- Miami Heat: Under 99 points – While Jimmy Butler has shouldered much of the Heat’s offensive load, along with the contributions of Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry, Miami’s sporadic shooting and lack of consistent scoring from the bench have limited their offensive output. The Heat mustered only 37 points collectively in Game 4, which is unlikely to be sufficient against the Nuggets’ formidable defense. Denver has allowed an average of 112 points per game during the regular season and 106 points in the playoffs, making the under bet on Miami’s total points appealing.
- Gabriel Vincent: Over 10 points – While Jimmy Butler carries a high points total expectation of 26, it may be more profitable to focus on an underperforming bench player like Gabe Vincent. Vincent displayed contrasting performances in the series, starting strong with 19+ points in the first two games but struggling to exceed 5 points in subsequent games. With a median projection around 12 points and an average of 9.4 points on the season, there is real value in considering him to score over 10 points, given the line set at 10.